The year 2025 – A legal order under pressure?

People sitting in a large conference hall. — The annual negotiations on resolutions in the UN General Assembly regarding the oceans and the law of the sea, and fisheries, are to be conducted. Foto: UN Photo/Cia Pak

The global regulatory development for the management of the oceans will continue in 2025. For fisheries, it is noteworthy that the implementation agreement on fisheries (the UN Fish Stocks Agreement) under the Law of the Sea Convention is now 30 years old. This has been of great significance for strengthening fisheries management at all levels.

Among other things, the agreement established a legal obligation to use a precautionary approach in fisheries management and to enhance regional cooperation. We also have such an implementation agreement that specifies the rules of the Law of the Sea Convention for deep-sea minerals. The International Seabed Authority has received more attention in recent years.

A number of states are now more concerned with the environmental consequences of mineral extraction than with the profits the activity is expected to generate.

Unresolved questions

A third implementation agreement, on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction ( BBNJ), has not yet come into force. Discussions are ongoing to resolve outstanding issues in the text of the agreement, such as the establishment of a number of bodies under the agreement. A main topic is how the implementation of the agreement will be financed. This is of particular concern to developing countries, as is the case in a number of other global fora.

A number of states are now more concerned with the environmental consequences of mineral extraction than with the profits the activity is expected to generate.

In addition to this, the annual negotiations on resolutions in the UN General Assembly regarding the oceans and the law of the sea and fisheries are also to be conducted. However, what is expected to receive the most attention this year is the UN's third ocean conference, which will take place in France in June. The two previous conferences, primarily a meeting place for the global marine jet-set, have not had much practical significance, and this one is unlikely to have much either.

Geopolitical tensions

The great power rivalry between the USA, China, and Russia is increasing. In the EU, last year's parliamentary elections have resulted in the Green Deal being put on hold. This is affecting the global ocean agenda.

The USA is in the process of withdrawing from international climate cooperation, among other things, and is unlikely to join the BBNJ agreement. The country is also not a party to the Law of the Sea Convention.

Nor does Russia appear particularly enthusiastic about international cooperation on marine issues, while China undermines the law of the sea with its conduct in the South China Sea. All three great powers seem to have diminishing respect for established territorial boundaries. At the same time, developing countries have begun to make increasing demands, particularly regarding financing.

The USA is in the process of withdrawing from international climate cooperation, among other things, and is unlikely to join the BBNJ agreement. The country is also not a party to the Law of the Sea Convention.

At the regional level, developments in Antarctica and the Arctic are particularly interesting. In Antarctica, there has been a situation for several years where China and Russia oppose conservation measures, while the USA has led demands for more marine protection, supported by the EU, among others.

It remains to be seen how political changes in the USA and the EU will affect regional fisheries cooperation, but it seems unlikely that the USA will continue to be a conservation nation in Antarctica. In the Arctic, the agreement to prevent unregulated fishing in international waters in the Central Arctic Ocean is a key arena for geopolitics.

There is little evidence of commercially interesting fish stocks here, and the agreement imposes a moratorium on commercial activity until at least 2037. The USA has been the main proponent of this agreement but is now de-prioritising international fisheries cooperation. For China, the agreement is primarily a mechanism that gives the country a seat at the table where Arctic issues are discussed, thereby strengthening its self-image as a "near-Arctic state." Since there are no fish there, the Central Arctic Ocean is also an arena for cost-free demonstration of green ideals through the establishment of marine protected areas.

Business as usual no more?

These developments make us question whether the trend over the past decades towards an increasingly rules-based global order for the oceans will continue. The growing emphasis on conservation and climate considerations is facing continual setbacks. North-South tensions are intensifying.

It seems unlikely that the great powers (with the possible exception of China) will join the third implementation agreement under the Law of the Sea Convention. On the other hand, all three great powers have greatly benefited from the global order that the existing law of the sea regime entails, which might suggest that they will be content with the status quo.